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Weekend projections, tracking
30 Days of Night, the Josh Hartnett vampire film, will, of course, be the #1 film this weekend with a 60 general, 36 definite and 13 first choice -- the trippiest, scariest entry in the pack, obviously destined to bring in the moronic (grunt-level, aesthetically challenged) majority. Fox Atomic's The Comebacks, another attraction that guys like me don't even want to know about, is at 48, 33 and 11.
Ben Affleck's Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) will probably be the strongest-performing of the weekend's three sober dramas with a 60, 35 and 10. Gavin Hood's Rendition (New Line) has a 56, 30 and 5, and Susanne Bier's Things We Lost in the Fire (Paramount) has a 50, 35 and 6, so they'll be neck and neck for 2nd and 3rd place among this somber trio.
Sarah Landon and the Paranormal Hour (Freestyle), another cheeseball attraction, is at 17, 22 and 1.
Touchstone and Steve Carell's Dan in Real Life (which is sneaking on Saturday night) is at 49, 35 and 4 -- a lowish number for a film opening on 10.26.07. Which is why they're sneaking it. One reason the numners are low is that people once trusted the costar of Little Miss Sunshine but now, after Evan Almighty and reports about Get Smart, they realize he'll do just about anything for the right paycheck.
Saw 4 will almost certainly be #1 next weekend -- 56, 33 and 8.
American Gangster, opening on 11.2, is at 76, 57 and 18 -- likely to be enormous over the first three days, earning perhaps as much as $40 million. DreamWorks and Jerry Seinfeld's Bee Movie -- 71, 33 and 5 -- should be #2 with decent business. (The fact that they're only screening it for the press next week means there are issues of concern. If they really had something, they'd be running with it earlier.) New Line and John Cusack's Martian Child is at 38, 21 and 1.
Among the 11.9 openings, Fred Claus is at 57, 29 and 3. Amy Heckerling's I Could Never Be Your Woman (Bauer Martinez) is at 14, 32 and 0. Lions for Lambs (MGM) is at 41, 24 and 1. And P2 is at 13, 26 and 0.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on October 18, 2007 at 1:17 PM
comment #1
OddDuck
says ...
Regarding Dan in Real Life and its trailer - I know, I know, as a rule, trailers don't necessarily have anything to do with the quality of the movie, but is there an exception for trailers that include Dane Cook? I will bet anyone ONE BILLION DOLLARS that this movie sucks! I've gotten stuck seeing this trailer twice in a theater and each time it grates on me to no end. For some reason a small moment in it sticks with me too. Someone says some throwaway line about someone not reading books - a mild chuckler at best (I didn't laugh at all) - then you hear EVERY ACTOR IN THE SCENE laughing like crazy at it. The second time I experienced that moment in the trailer made me want to stab the whole world in the eye with a screwdriver :)
Posted by OddDuck
at October 18, 2007 2:16 PM
comment #2
Rothchild
says ...
He'll do anything for a paycheck? You sound like Nikki Finke. And there are no "reports about Get Smart." That film is still up in the air. The ten minute presentation at Comic Con was really, really funny. There's no guarantee it will be like Evan Almighty. Anyone with half a brain could see why he took that job. It wasn't his fault they spent 200 million dollars on it.
Posted by Rothchild
at October 18, 2007 2:17 PM
comment #3
anti-sardine
says ...
Speaking of films--bad segue alert---
Hey gruver1
I hear that Hearts of Darnkness: A Filmaker's Apocalypse is finally coming to DVD. Any thoughts or more information on that?
Hickenlooper, was the main quote that Coppola wanted cut the only alteration or was there more? Did you do a commentary, interview, etc.?
Posted by anti-sardine
at October 18, 2007 2:17 PM
comment #4
chicbn872
says ...
I love Steve Carell..."Get Smart" is going to be God Awful. It is a certainty.
Posted by chicbn872
at October 18, 2007 2:22 PM
comment #5
themutilator
says ...
Well my weekend of moving going is setting up nicely.
Friday...30 Days of Night
Rendition
Mulberry Street
Sunday...Reservation Road
Automoton Transfusion
Poultrygeist
Monday...Things We Lost in the Fire
Nightmare Before X-Mas 3D
Gone Baby Gone
Posted by themutilator
at October 18, 2007 2:29 PM
comment #6
cjKennedy
says ...
Wells, have you seen the vampire flick or are you just dismissing it on some kind of vague principle? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm asking if you actually know of what you speak.
Posted by cjKennedy
at October 18, 2007 2:42 PM
comment #7
MiraJeffAICN
says ...
Mutilator, where are you seeing Automaton and Poultrygeist. I've been looking forward to those for a while. My friend Will Clevinger produced Automaton and my college friend, Kate Graham, stars in Poultrygeist. She's beautiful, by the way. And I would def. see GBG or RR over Rendition.
Posted by MiraJeffAICN
at October 18, 2007 2:49 PM
comment #8
EDouglas
says ...
yeah, i don't think the low tracking for Dan In Real Life has anything to do with Carell's popularity... and what I saw of Get Smart at Comic-Con was very VERY funny. But go ahead and figure it's going to be terrible, cause I think you're underestimating director Peter Segal.
Posted by EDouglas
at October 18, 2007 2:55 PM
comment #9
Devin Faraci
says ...
DAN IN REAL LIFE is not a very good movie. It's sort of middle of the road inoffensive junk for single 40 year old ladies until the second half.
Posted by Devin Faraci
at October 18, 2007 2:56 PM
comment #10
themutilator
says ...
This week in Toronto we have the second annual Toronto After Dark Film Fest...fantasy and horror. Im a horror freak, not so much fantasy. Im also seeing Simon Says (Crispin Glover!!) on Wed. night.
Im skipping The Tripper and Murder Party as I will have both of them on DVD before they show at the fest. Im also skipping The Wizard of Gore tonight (Rue Morgue showing) as I can wait for DVD.
Have you seen Inside? Its FANTASTIC...a new favorite.
And the reason Im seeing Rendition before GBG or RR...Jake Gyllenhaal.
Posted by themutilator
at October 18, 2007 2:59 PM
comment #11
Wrecktum
says ...
Wells, do you really think people are leery about Carell because of Get Smart? Do you honestly think that most people even know it's coming out?
Dan in Real Life is a very good movie. Check it out if you can.
Posted by Wrecktum
at October 18, 2007 3:00 PM
comment #12
bmcintire
says ...
I'd say DAN's numbers are low due more to the fact that it isn't being promoted very heavily, and it looks completely saccharine. And not to defend the trailer, but the bit OddDuck is complaining about is the result of two separate scenes in the film being edited together (rather poorly) to create a manufactured laugh for what is barely a chuckler of a line.
And RENDITION is getting hammered on Rotten Tomatoes. Yikes!
Posted by bmcintire
at October 18, 2007 3:01 PM
comment #13
BurmaShave
says ...
Devin, in the second half does he become a homicidal maniac by any chance? Please please please?
Posted by BurmaShave
at October 18, 2007 3:05 PM
comment #14
bmcintire
says ...
Then again, so is RESERVATION ROAD.
Posted by bmcintire
at October 18, 2007 3:07 PM
comment #15
nycfilmguy28
says ...
Is it just me, or does it seem like almost none of the serious-minded adult films for fall have been handled well at all? I realize some of these titles might just be duds, but I also feel like the studios have let some promising films (in terms of awards potential and gross) just fall off the radar. It's like they're gunning for failure this fall, releasing a ton of very similar films on the same weekends, dumping films in a middling amount of theaters without the benefit of a platform release or the advertising to support a wide opening (Things We Lost in the Fire and Gone Baby Gone this weekend, for example), or just doing a poor job with marketing. What gives?
Even films that doing "well" in comparison--Across the Universe, for example--aren't really popping. Audiences seem to like it, so why isn't the studio running with it? Why hasn't all the positive buzz for Into the Wild turned that film into anything like a hit? It has plenty of mass-appeal elements.
And don't even get me started on Jesse James. WB has it playing in about the same number of theaters this weekend as No Reservations, in what I believe is its 13th week!! (And in the NY area it seems to be losing playdates quickly... I realize it hasn't really caught on, but they didn't even really try any serious advertising.)
Too many films, too little support?
Posted by nycfilmguy28
at October 18, 2007 3:52 PM
comment #16
EDouglas
says ...
"DAN IN REAL LIFE is not a very good movie. It's sort of middle of the road inoffensive junk for single 40 year old ladies until the second half."
Well, I loved it, so maybe it's time to get that sex change.
Posted by EDouglas
at October 18, 2007 4:26 PM
comment #17
jeffmcm
says ...
"...obviously destined to bring in the moronic (grunt-level, aesthetically challenged) majority."
Insulting but not unexpected from a guy like Wells who hates horror movies as a whole.
Posted by jeffmcm
at October 18, 2007 6:44 PM
comment #18
carla kolchak
says ...
themutilator - I am attending After Dark this weekend, too, but the film at the top of my list is Audience of One. Looks like Lost in La Mancha on a smaller and more absurd scale. I also plan to see Automoton Transfusion but remain hesitant about Poultrygeist... I just can't imagine how it might actually be funny. Also wanna see the horror shorts on Saturday. Aside from the festival, though, 30 Days of Night is high atop my list. The books by Steve Niles and Ben Templesmith are things of brutal beauty and the trailer sure looks like they've tried to give it a similar look.
Posted by carla kolchak
at October 18, 2007 9:09 PM
comment #19
cjKennedy
says ...
Perhaps you didn't get the memo Carla, Wells said 30 Days is for grunt-level, aesthetically challenged morons. Wells as spoken, and it is so.
Posted by cjKennedy
at October 18, 2007 10:09 PM
comment #20
Chinaski
says ...
Mirajeff,
"Underestimating Peter Segal"? I've seen enough (too much) of his work to see that he's essentially an incompetent schlob. His Longest Yard remake was one of the worst directed comedies I've ever seen.
Posted by Chinaski
at October 19, 2007 3:52 AM
comment #21
RoyBatty
says ...
Actually, Wells says nothing about the film, only the type of viewers it might attract. Calling it "the trippiest, scariest..." indicates he appreciates it on some level.
And he's right - the kind of guy who loves watching "Jackass" and skateboard bloopers where dudes get really messed up so they can laugh like hyenas do usually eat films like 30 DAYS up.
Posted by RoyBatty
at October 19, 2007 10:06 AM
comment #22
christian
says ...
Didn't Jeff love JACKASS?
Posted by christian
at October 19, 2007 10:26 AM
comment #23
cjKennedy
says ...
"trippiest, scariest" does seem to point in that direction, but when I asked for clarification I got none.
If he liked the movie, then his comments are even more pointless. The world is lousy with morons. Yes. Thank you for the newsflash. Many of those same morons will be there for American Gangster opening night.
Posted by cjKennedy
at October 19, 2007 4:06 PM
comment #24
carla kolchak
says ...
'Perhaps you didn't get the memo Carla, Wells said 30 Days is for grunt-level, aesthetically challenged morons. Wells as spoken, and it is so.
- Posted by: cjKennedy'
The source material isn't aimed at that audience but the film adaptation may very well be. I dunno; I haven't seen it yet. I have noticed that the reviews are pretty much split 50/50 at this point, which is worrisome to me. I do love the books.
In any case, as a grunt-level, aesthetically-challenged moron, I figger I can't lose.
Posted by carla kolchak
at October 19, 2007 7:03 PM
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